Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
